It's been quite a journey already. And this year, everything is going to hot up. For those of us rooting for the new Windows 7 platform the big question is:
where's the marketing onslaught?
In the smartphone industry, it's all about... Well, how would you finish that question?
It's all about the experience
That was Apple's breakthrough insight. Smartphone is first and foremost a consumer category. So the total experience must be great. And Apple has kept driving forward on this, keeping total ownership of the context. But there's a feeling in the air that the they're running out of imagination. They're in the slow lane not because they lack vision but because as a single company they simply can't experiment in the way multi-dimensional competitive players have to.
Is Microsoft doing better? No. But it is doing about as well as Apple - allowing for a couple of quarters of lag.
Can Microsoft do better? Yes. It has to take on the marketing challenge. The launch was good, but the initial messaging didn't provide the breakthrough and it's time for another assault. 7/10
It's all about choice
The volume leader is Android. Consumers are flooded with choice. There's real confusion too - what are all those version numbers? Why are some operators lagging updates? How come some handsets and tablets have such lame performance?
This kind of confusion seems like a big problem - especially if you are an Apple fan. But is it? I don't think so.
We didn't - and don't - view confusion in the featurephone market as any kind of problem. And in some ways that's strange, because it's plain irritating that even in the most basic details - how do I enter special characters like spaces - there's no standardisation. A new phone is a whole new learning experience - and very little of that is driven by new capabilities.
But look at the choice! And look at the value! Wherever you are, however you set your priorities, you're going to find the phone for you.
Microsoft has a handful of manufacturers, and a couple of handfuls of models. The specs are very similar, and the effect in my view is that there's neither the cut-through simplicity of Apple's range (iPhone 4: 16 or 32GB; iPhone 3GS with 8GB), nor the range of value propositions that characterises Android.
Let's be clear: getting to launch in this shape was a towering achievement. No manufacturer had to take an interest at all. But Microsoft needs to work much, much harder with manufacturers and network operators to position Windows Phone 7 as a serious contender in the mid-to-high end smartphone market. And in my view, we need a hero handset for the lower end too, because that's where the big battle is going to be fought in the middle of this decade. 3/10
It's all about apps
Apps are digital consumables. We buy them (or take them, if they're free). We use them - once, twice or a few times, typically. Sometimes we don't even do that - like cartons of milk, if you leave them unopened long enough, they're headed for the bin. App builders want to change our lives; we're often just interested into the novelty.
That could sound dismissive, as though I were suggesting this is somehow irrelevant. But it's not at all. It's just the way we're behaving in this new situation - and most people I speak to love the fact that it's all so easy and so cheap, and don't worry whether they're using many (or any) apps regularly.
Apps are important. They bring the whole experience to life.
Microsoft is a company that creates fantastic fabric for developers. And Windows Phone 7 is getting the benefit of that.
But looking at the numbers and the quality, there's a need for fresh thinking to make this catch fire. 2/10
It's all about integration
My smartphone goes (almost) everywhere. It has to try and be everything it can for my interactions with other people and platforms. It can't win on every dimension against all my staticware - TV, PC, console, phone - but it creates new dimensions in which it excels.
As a user, I don't just want that value in theory, hidden somewhere in my device. No, I want it surfaced.
Now listen up, Microsoft. You're getting the experience right and you're telling it all wrong.
The messaging suggests Windows Phone will get me "in, and out, and back to life." It will "do more in fewer steps." That's just confused. It shows a worldview that's continuous with the PC revolution, but is no longer meaningful.
We are all becoming digital citizens, and the smartphone is what allows me to be 'in' all the time. But it's about the being, not the doing.
Hubs and live tiles are the first glimpse on any major platform of that in action. It's not complete, but it's a lead. 8/10
Total score for Windows Phone 7: 20/40
Today I'd rate Apple 27 and Android 25. Microsoft has a big fight on its hands. But it's not many months since the world was confidently predicting that the battle was already hopelessly lost.
The Windows Phone 7 team need to find new reserves of energy. Because, to quote Churchill, this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
